Ever since Brian Bilbray beat Democrat Francine Busby in that lousy summer ’06 special election, most Democrats have thrown up their hands when it comes to winning California’s 50th Congressional District. But a new poll by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research (4/24-27, likely voters) for Democratic challenger Nick Leibham suggests that the ground may be shifting in the right direction in this R+4.6 district. First, the head-to-head:
Nick Leibham (D): 34
Brian Bilbray (R-inc): 52
(MoE: ±4.9%)
That’s about where you’d expect this race to be at this point. But looking deeper into the numbers, Democrats have a 43%-39% generic congressional ballot preference advantage here, and a 47%-40% generic presidential advantage. And after a positive bio is read of both Leibham and Bilbray, the gap closes to 49% Bilbray, 46% Leibham.
Bilbray’s re-elects aren’t stellar either, with only 42% of voters saying that they will vote to re-elect him, while 39% say that they’ll cast their ballots for someone else.
This is not to say that this race is likely to end up on the competitive board, but it’s definitely worth keeping an eye on — especially since Leibham’s war chest is a respectable 53% of Bilbray’s cash-on-hand.
Up Nick Leibham’s name recognition, and Chain link Bilbray to Bush. This is a ripe district, Leibham is a decent candidate, decent fundraising, and Bilbray is proving lackluster for an incumbent in his position.